Authoritarian regimes’ breadth of ethnic inclusion shapes post-transition electoral violence risk.

Evidence

However, regimes pursued inclusion to different extents, and we argue that the degree of inclusion matters. Specifically, in the context of multi-ethnic societies, leaders that rule by means of a narrower ethnic support base, what we refer to as exclusionary approaches, create interethnic relations characterized by competition and fragmentation. With the introduction of multiparty elections, such dynamics heighten the risk of electoral violence by foreclosing the forging of cross-ethnic elite coalitions and by contributing to more competitive intercommunal relations. In this context, leaders can gain politically by resorting to electoral tactics that rest on hostile group narratives. By contrast, strategies that rely on a more broad-based ethnic support base, here called inclusionary approaches, are more likely to produce interethnic relations that alleviate the risks of violence in founding elections by fostering inclusive inter-elite bargaining and by contributing to more amicable intercommunal relations, thereby lowering incentives for hostile out-group mobilization. — Johan Brosché and Hanne Fjelde and Kristine Höglund, Electoral violence and the legacy of…, 10

Categorization

• DEFINE: Introduces the book’s core conceptual distinction between exclusionary and inclusionary ethnic strategies with precise mechanisms linking each to electoral-violence risk.
• XREF: Connects to the threatened-privilege research purpose: exclusionary regimes arguably manufacture anticipatory status threat among privileged ethnic groups that mobilization exploits. — connects to: Exclusionary authoritarian coalitions seed later electoral violence while inclusive ones do not. — Johan Brosché and Hanne Fjelde and Kristine Höglund, Electoral violence and the legacy of…, 4; Inclusive versus exclusive authoritarian ruling coalitions shape electoral violence risk. — Johan Brosché and Hanne Fjelde and Kristine Höglund, Electoral violence and the legacy of…, 94; Exclusionary versus cooperative elite coalition legacies shape post-transition electoral violence risk. — Johan Brosché and Hanne Fjelde and Kristine Höglund, Electoral violence and the legacy of…, 96 (+9 more)

Related

• Inclusive authoritarian legacies reduce zero-sum ethnic politics during democratic transitions (similarity 0.94)
• Exclusionary authoritarian coalitions seed later electoral violence while inclusive ones do not. (similarity 0.91)
• Preventing ethnic dominance reduces electoral violence during democratic transitions (similarity 0.91)
• Exclusionary authoritarian regimes cultivate zero-sum perceptions that outlast them and drive electoral violence (similarity 0.89)
• Narrow authoritarian coalitions raise mobilization stakes and zero-sum perceptions among excluded groups. (similarity 0.89)
• Exclusionary versus cooperative elite coalition legacies shape post-transition electoral violence risk. (similarity 0.88)
• Authoritarian coalition-building approaches shape post-transition political incentives. (similarity 0.88)
• Inclusive versus exclusive authoritarian ruling coalitions shape electoral violence risk. (similarity 0.87)
• Authoritarian-era rhetoric norms constrain whether elites can later mobilize voters through ethnic hostility. (similarity 0.87)
• Authoritarian-rule legacies plausibly drive electoral violence beyond Africa (similarity 0.87)
• Authoritarian regimes vary in how inclusively they build ethnic ruling coalitions. (similarity 0.86)
• Electoral violence in ethnically divided societies erupts when elections become ethnic head counts. (similarity 0.86)
• African ruling coalitions nearly always include some ethno-regional intermediaries, but inclusion depth varies (similarity 0.84)
• Authoritarian-era institutional choices can shape political behavior after democratic openings. (similarity 0.84)
• Lifting authoritarian repression explains only some post-transition ethnic violence. (similarity 0.82)

Broader Connections

• Exclusionary versus cooperative elite coalition legacies shape post-transition electoral violence risk. #corroborates (0.90) — Johan Brosché and Hanne Fjelde and Kristine Höglund, Electoral violence and the legacy of…, 96
• Inclusive versus exclusive authoritarian ruling coalitions shape electoral violence risk. #corroborates (0.85) — Johan Brosché and Hanne Fjelde and Kristine Höglund, Electoral violence and the legacy of…, 94
• Exclusionary authoritarian regimes cultivate zero-sum perceptions that outlast them and drive electoral violence #corroborates (0.78) — Johan Brosché and Hanne Fjelde and Kristine Höglund, Electoral violence and the legacy of…, 98
• Inclusive authoritarian legacies reduce zero-sum ethnic politics during democratic transitions #qualifies (0.75) — Johan Brosché and Hanne Fjelde and Kristine Höglund, Electoral violence and the legacy of…, 38
• Preventing ethnic dominance reduces electoral violence during democratic transitions #expands (0.72) — Johan Brosché and Hanne Fjelde and Kristine Höglund, Electoral violence and the legacy of…, 87