Theoretical frameworks beyond realism are needed to explain NATO’s survival.

Evidence

This article began with a striking anomaly: six years after events that most observers agree heralded the end of the cold war, the key Western security institution was still functioning and even expanding—even though most theories about alliances would predict that it should be on its deathbed. While no theory, especially a structural one, can explain every event or policy decision, a good theory should explain the overall direction of outcomes and should identify causal mechanisms that must be present if the theory is to work. By this criterion, neorealism falls short. Nonetheless, I aim here to supplement neorealist arguments about alliances, not dismiss them. What emerges is a better understanding of the boundaries of traditional realist theory, some potential modifications to realist theory, and an appreciation of the utility of theoretical frameworks not usually applied to alliance behavior. In particular, this effort takes international institutionalist approaches to security seriously and finds them to be worthwhile. — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 149

Categorization

• XREF: Provides the theoretical framing directly relevant to the reader’s concern with identity persisting after its founding enemy — institutionalism as the mechanism whereby NATO outlives the Soviet threat. — connects to: Analysts expected NATO to die once its Soviet enemy vanished. — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 12; NATO’s survival hinges on member states continuing to benefit from it — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 101; NATO’s institutionalization beyond mutual defense explains its persistence after its founding threat vanished. — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 107 (+6 more)
• DEFINE: States the paper’s working criterion for good theory: explaining overall direction of outcomes and identifying necessary causal mechanisms.

Broader Connections

• NATO stayed cohesive despite neorealist predictions of its collapse #corroborates (0.93) — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 57
• NATO survived the cold war’s end due to institutionalization, not merely threats #exemplifies (0.92) — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 152
• Alliance cohesion theories predict NATO should have dissolved after the Soviet threat vanished #corroborates (0.90) — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 40
• NATO’s dense institutionalization beyond mutual defense is what made it survive its founding threat. #exemplifies (0.90) — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 107
• Realism explains alliance behavior under threat but fails without one. #expands (0.88) — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 157
• Theories predicting alliance demise need testable time frames for their claims. #qualifies (0.75) — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 45