Alliance theory predicts collapse once threats vanish.

Evidence

Scholars have paid far less attention to what alliances do when the threat facing them changes or disappears. Those who have studied alliances under these conditions generally conclude that without threats, alliances will not last. — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 14

Categorization

• QUESTION: If realist predictions say NATO should die, what mechanism actually sustains institutional identity past the founding enemy?
• XREF: connects to: Analysts expected NATO to die once its Soviet enemy vanished. — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 12; Explaining alliance persistence requires nonrealist unit-level theory. — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 16; Neorealist theories predict alliances collapse once their external threat fades. — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 37 (+18 more)

Broader Connections

• Neorealist theories predict alliances collapse once their external threat fades. #corroborates (0.97) — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 37
• Costly alliances should dissolve when the threat justifying their costs disappears. #expands (0.92) — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 41
• Alliances may persist through habit and precaution after threats recede #complicates (0.90) — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 61
• Alliances with developed organizations survive threats long after they vanish #contradicts (0.90) — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 153
• Realism explains alliance behavior under threat but fails without one. #qualifies (0.88) — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 157
• Alliance theory has neglected why alliances persist and what happens when they become obsolete #qualifies (0.85) — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 31
• Theories predicting alliance demise need testable time frames for their claims. #responds-to (0.82) — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 45
• A shared enemy cannot hold alliance partners whose ambitions conflict #qualifies (0.74) — Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the…, 881
• Cooperation thrives where stakes are low, threats absent, and ambiguity reduced #qualifies (0.72)