Neorealist theories predict alliances collapse once their external threat fades.

Evidence

Through a neorealist lens, when the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact disappeared, the threat perceived by NATO allies was reduced. Mikhail Gorbachev’s and Boris Yeltsin’s actions eased fears about Soviet and Russian intentions by withdrawing from Afghanistan, agreeing to significant cuts in nuclear and conventional arsenals, loosening the Soviet grip on Eastern Europe, and even allowing for the breakup of the Soviet Union itself. In Stephen Walt’s balance-of-threat theory, this constitutes a serious change, as the threat seen by the West has shrunk rapidly and substantially. As a result, we should expect NATO’s cohesion to loosen, the U.S. position in NATO to weaken, and the degree of policy coordination among alliance members to shrink as members seek out their own policy directions. — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 37

Categorization

• XREF: This is exactly the reader’s question — whether NATO should have dissolved after the USSR vanished — setting up the paradox the rest of the book presumably resolves. — connects to: No realist theory explains why states perceive some powers but not others as threats — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 61; The US-China anti-Soviet alliance dissolved as Soviet threat perception eased — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 157; Alliance theory predicts collapse once threats vanish. — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 14 (+6 more)
• corroborated: 2 independent passages support this claim — Robert B. McCalla, NATO’s persistence after the cold war, 37
• recurring: this claim recurs 2 times within its source