Revolutionary situations concentrate in low-capacity regimes while revolutionary outcomes remain rare everywhere

Evidence

These causal principles imply somewhat different distributions of revolutionary situations and revolutionary outcomes across time, space, and type of regime. Revolutionary situations occur frequently, especially in low-capacity regimes. In such regimes, contenders or coalitions of contenders often advance exclusive competing claims to control of some state segment, mobilize commitment to those claims from significant numbers of citizens, and brave rulers who (at least temporarily) lack the capacity and/or will to suppress them. Revolutionary outcomes occur much more rarely because existing rulers and their allies regularly end revolutionary situations by destroying or pacifying their opponents. But they sometimes emerge in the absence of revolutionary situations. — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 985

Categorization

• XREF: Directly feeds the reader’s search for the regime-capacity/democracy matrix: this is where capacity predicts contention type. — connects to: Revolutionary situations recur often but rarely become outcomes; A revolutionary situation’s outcome depends on prevailing regimes and repertoires. — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 1088; High capacity and democracy suppress revolutionary situations while medium-capacity regimes favor outcomes — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 979 (+7 more)
• corroborated: 2 independent passages support this claim — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 985

Broader Connections

• Revolutionary situations recur often but rarely become outcomes #corroborates (0.95)
• High capacity and democracy suppress revolutionary situations while medium-capacity regimes favor outcomes #corroborates (0.92) — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 979
• Regime capacity, not just state consolidation, shapes revolutionary coalition frequency and type. #corroborates (0.90) — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 1043
• Regime structure determines revolutionary situation frequency and character #corroborates (0.88) — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 1045
• Consolidated states face far fewer revolutionary situations than founding regimes do #exemplifies (0.88) — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 1058
• A revolutionary situation’s outcome depends on prevailing regimes and repertoires. #expands (0.85) — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 1088
• Revolutionary situations are best explained by regime processes, not universal prior conditions #corroborates (0.85) — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 1062
• Revolutions happen when governmental weakness unblocks pressures, not when they are blocked #corroborates (0.82)
• Regime and repertoire organization shapes which revolutionary shifts occur. #expands (0.78) — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 995
• Low-capacity democracies are rare and historically short-lived #qualifies (0.75)