Low-capacity democracies are rare and historically short-lived

Evidence

The crucial causal regularities connect revolutionary situations and outcomes to regimes and repertoires. The greater a regime’s capacity and democracy, the more difficult it is for revolutionary contenders to form, for substantial segments of the citizenry to commit themselves on behalf of those contenders, and for those who do organize and commit themselves to escape suppression. Hence revolutionary situations occur much more frequently in low-capacity, nondemocratic regimes than in other types, especially high-capacity, democratic regimes. As for revolutionary outcomes, the regularities are subtler. Defections of regime members, acquisition of armed force by revolutionary coalitions, and neutralization of a regime’s armed force all happen more easily in low-capacity, nondemocratic regimes than others. Control of the state apparatus by members of revolutionary coalitions, however, faces severe obstacles in low-capacity, nondemocratic regimes, since the apparatus itself tends to fragment during such seizures of power. Hence mediumcapacity, nondemocratic regimes foster more revolutionary outcomes than other types of regime. — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 979 (#corroborates, via linked claim)

What is unique about the dystopia in Children of Men is that it is specific to late capitalism. This isn’t the familiar totalitarian scenario routinely trotted out in cinematic dystopias (see, for example, James McTeigue’s 2005 V for Vendetta). In the PD. James novel on which the film is based, democracy is suspended and the country is ruled over by a self-appointed Warden, but, wisely, the film downplays all this. For all that we know, the authoritarian measures that are everywhere in place could have been implemented within a political structure that remains, notionally, democratic. The War on Terror has prepared us for such a development: the normalization of crisis produces a situation in which the repealing of measures brought in to deal with an emergency becomes unimaginable (when will the war be over?) — Mark Fisher, Capitalist Realism, 7 (#qualifies, via linked claim)

Categorization

• XREF: connects to: Semi-democratic medium-capacity regimes occupy an intermediate contention position — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 503; Freedom House’s combined ratings proxy democracy with weak capacity content — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 454; High capacity and democracy suppress revolutionary situations while medium-capacity regimes favor outcomes — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 979 (+2 more)

Related

• Authoritarian measures can persist within nominally democratic structures via normalized crisis (similarity 0.86)
• High capacity and democracy suppress revolutionary situations while medium-capacity regimes favor outcomes (similarity 0.84)
• Late-capitalist dystopia depicts catastrophe as an ongoing lived condition rather than a punctual event (similarity 0.80)

Broader Connections

• High capacity and democracy suppress revolutionary situations while medium-capacity regimes favor outcomes #corroborates (0.82) — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 979
• Democracies are harder to build but also harder to destroy than authoritarian regimes #qualifies (0.72)
• Authoritarian measures can persist within nominally democratic structures via normalized crisis #qualifies (0.70) — Mark Fisher, Capitalist Realism, 7