Revolutionary success requires security-force defection, elite division, and contagion waves

Evidence

In the history of revolutions, a couple of truisms had already emerged. One is that they are only successful when security forces defect or are defeated in violent conflict. Even if Mao Zedong was being a bit provocative when he said that “power grows out of the barrel of a gun,” experts agree that he is not so far off. You can’t run a country if the biggest army around wants to stop you. Another is that revolutionary opportunities often arise when there are divisions in the ruling class—that is, when elites are fighting amongst themselves. And one more truism is that revolutions are contagious; at least, uprisings tend to cluster around certain moments in time. News of one success spreads to another country, where people try their luck too; or revolts happen in response to a major international event, like the end of a war or a financial crisis. — Vincent Bevins, If We Burn, 89

Categorization

• DEFINE: Lays out the standard truisms of revolution scholarship that later chapters will test against the protest decade.
• XREF: connects to: Structureless populations make revolutions easy to win but hard to secure; Revolutionary situations recur often but rarely become outcomes; Elite-led and popular revolutionary forces jointly make outcomes even when unaware — Antonio Gramsci, Selections from the Prison Notebooks, 558 (+2 more)

Broader Connections

• Elite-led and popular revolutionary forces jointly make outcomes even when unaware #corroborates (0.85) — Antonio Gramsci, Selections from the Prison Notebooks, 558
• Revolutionary situations recur often but rarely become outcomes #complicates (0.80)
• Structureless populations make revolutions easy to win but hard to secure #qualifies (0.75)
• Rising governmental capacity raises revolution’s stakes and impact while reducing fragmentation #qualifies (0.75) — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 1067