Perceived racial demographic shift raises White group status threat that drives Trump support.

Evidence

This experiment demonstrates that the changing racial demographics of America contribute to Trump’s success as a presidential candidate among White Americans whose race/ethnicity is central to their identity. Reminding White Americans high in ethnic identification that non-White racial groups will outnumber Whites in the United States by 2042 caused them to become more concerned about the declining status and influence of White Americans as a group (i.e., experience group status threat), and caused them to report increased support for Trump and anti-immigrant policies, as well as greater opposition to political correctness. Increased group status threat mediated the effects of the racial shift condition on candidate support, anti-immigrant policy support, and opposition to political correctness. — Brenda Major and Alison Blodorn and Gregory Major Blascovich, The threat of increasing diversity, 5

This study is the first to demonstrate experimentally that the changing racial demographics of America are directly contributing to Trump’s success among Whites by increasing perceived threats to their group’s status. It is also the first to show that White Americans’ responses to increasing racial diversity depend on how identified they are with their ethnic group. — Brenda Major and Alison Blodorn and Gregory Major Blascovich, The threat of increasing diversity, 57

Categorization

• ADDENDUM: Core experimental evidence for a threatened-privilege mechanism: anticipatory status threat from projected minority-majority shift produces out-group political mobilization among high-identification Whites.
• XREF: Directly extends the threatened-privilege mechanism framing across an identity axis (race here; reader wonders about gender, religion, nativity). — connects to: Perceived racial demographic shift may push White Americans toward conservatism. — Maureen A. Craig and Jennifer A. Richeson, On the Precipice of a…, 1; Perceived racial demographic shifts cause a conservative shift in White Americans through group-status threat. — Maureen A. Craig and Jennifer A. Richeson, On the Precipice of a…, 8; Perceived demographic shift causal threat to White status shifts policy conservatism — Maureen A. Craig and Jennifer A. Richeson, On the Precipice of a…, 40 (+14 more)
• DEEPTHINKING: The mediation finding that status threat specifically, not negativity toward the out-group, drives candidate support is a precise, widely-cited result about how projected demographic change translates into real policy preferences.
• corroborated: 2 independent passages support this claim — Brenda Major and Alison Blodorn and Gregory Major Blascovich, The threat of increasing diversity: Why…, 5; Brenda Major and Alison Blodorn and Gregory Major Blascovich, The threat of increasing diversity: Why…, 57

Related

• Racial-shift reminders shift highly identified Whites toward Trump and against Sanders via status threat. (similarity 0.93)
• Demographic shift reminders backfire among low-identification Whites, shrinking Trump support. (similarity 0.92)
• Racial demographic shift threatens Whites only when they identify strongly with their ethnic group. (similarity 0.92)
• Perceived racial demographic shifts cause a conservative shift in White Americans through group-status threat. (similarity 0.90)
• Low-identification Whites show a puzzling backlash AGAINST Trump under racial-shift framing. (similarity 0.90)
• Status threat from diversity shifts whites rightward regardless of party affiliation. (similarity 0.89)
• Perceived racial demographic shift may push White Americans toward conservatism. (similarity 0.89)
• Reminding White Americans of shifting racial demographics raises their group status threat. (similarity 0.89)
• Ethnic identification, not party affiliation, moderates Whites’ threat response. (similarity 0.89)
• Exposure to information about racial demographic change raises Whites’ status threat and conservatism (similarity 0.88)
• Racial status threat may drive conservative shifts even among minorities (similarity 0.88)
• Antidiversity rhetoric attracts status-threatened Whites toward the most extreme candidate (similarity 0.87)
• Shrinking numerical majority makes White identity salient and politically mobilizing (similarity 0.87)
• Perceived demographic shift causal threat to White status shifts policy conservatism (similarity 0.86)
• Brenda Major and Alison Blodorn and Gregory Major Blascovich — The threat of increasing diversity Why many White Americans support Trump in the 2016 presidential election (similarity 0.86)

Broader Connections

• Racial-shift reminders shift highly identified Whites toward Trump and against Sanders via status threat. #corroborates (1.00) — Brenda Major and Alison Blodorn and Gregory Major Blascovich, The threat of increasing diversity, 53
• Reminding White Americans of shifting racial demographics raises their group status threat. #corroborates (0.95) — Brenda Major and Alison Blodorn and Gregory Major Blascovich, The threat of increasing diversity, 36
• Status threat from diversity shifts whites rightward regardless of party affiliation. #corroborates (0.90) — Brenda Major and Alison Blodorn and Gregory Major Blascovich, The threat of increasing diversity, 66
• Exposure to information about racial demographic change raises Whites’ status threat and conservatism #corroborates (0.88) — Brenda Major and Alison Blodorn and Gregory Major Blascovich, The threat of increasing diversity, 16
• Low-identification Whites show a puzzling backlash AGAINST Trump under racial-shift framing. #qualifies (0.85) — Brenda Major and Alison Blodorn and Gregory Major Blascovich, The threat of increasing diversity, 56
• Perceived threat to in-group status evokes greater political conservatism. #corroborates (0.85) — Maureen A. Craig and Jennifer A. Richeson, On the Precipice of a…, 12
• Demographic shift reminders backfire among low-identification Whites, shrinking Trump support. #qualifies (0.82) — Brenda Major and Alison Blodorn and Gregory Major Blascovich, The threat of increasing diversity, 5
• Perceived loss of white Christian status, not economics, drove Trump support #corroborates (0.80) — Kristin Kobes Du Mez, Jesus and John Wayne, 603
• Trump’s election was perceived as a reversal of presumed racial progress #expands (0.75) — Nikole Hannah-Jones et al., The 1619 Project, 1235
• Ethnic identification, not party affiliation, moderates Whites’ threat response. #qualifies (0.75) — Brenda Major and Alison Blodorn and Gregory Major Blascovich, The threat of increasing diversity, 21
• Dramatic political events shift racial attitudes positively even among reluctant whites #complicates (0.72)