Average citizens have little independent influence on U.S. policy relative to economic elites.

Evidence

Each of four theoretical traditions in the study of American politics—which can be characterized as theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy, Economic-Elite Domination, and two types of interest-group pluralism, Majoritarian Pluralism and Biased Pluralism—offers different predictions about which sets of actors have how much influence over public policy: average citizens; economic elites; and organized interest groups, mass-based or business-oriented. A great deal of empirical research speaks to the policy influence of one or another set of actors, but until recently it has not been possible to test these contrasting theoretical predictions against each other within a single statistical model. We report on an effort to do so, using a unique data set that includes measures of the key variables for 1,779 policy issues. Multivariate analysis indicates that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence. The results provide substantial support for theories of Economic-Elite Domination and for theories of Biased Pluralism, but not for theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy or Majoritarian Pluralism. — Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, Testing Theories of American Politics, 1

Categorization

• QUESTION: The key question for the reader’s purpose: what is the exact instrument by which ‘influence’ is measured — the actual coding of whether each of the 1,779 issues had a policy outcome matching the preferences of elites vs. average citizens. The report flags the core finding but not yet the operationalization.
• XREF: This is the canonical Gilens & Page (2014) result — directly the empirical anchor for the reader’s search on policy responsiveness by income percentile (their 2005 paper used the 10th/50th/90th percentile measure). — connects to: Average citizens have almost no independent influence over U.S. policy. — Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, Testing Theories of American Politics:…, 90; Ordinary citizens hold little independent influence over U.S. policy; Economic elites dominate US policy while average citizens exert little influence — Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, Testing Theories of American Politics:…, 11 (+7 more)

Broader Connections

• Average citizens have almost no independent influence over U.S. policy. #expands (0.97) — Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, Testing Theories of American Politics, 90
• Ordinary citizens hold little independent influence over U.S. policy #expands (0.96)
• Economic elites dominate US policy while average citizens exert little influence #expands (0.95) — Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, Testing Theories of American Politics, 11
• General public opinion barely moves policy outcomes when elite preferences are held constant. #expands (0.92) — Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, Testing Theories of American Politics, 97
• Economic elites exert the largest independent influence on U.S. policy. #expands (0.92) — Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, Testing Theories of American Politics, 91
• U.S. policy responds to elites and interest groups, not the public. #expands (0.88) — Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, Testing Theories of American Politics, 93
• Correlated elite and mass preferences do not reflect citizen influence on policy. #expands (0.85) — Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, Testing Theories of American Politics, 135
• U.S. policy outcomes contradict majority preferences whenever elites or organized interests disagree #expands (0.80)
• Policy congruence favors the rich only where policy rarely changes #qualifies (0.75) — Mikael Persson and Anders Sundell, Blocking the Poor, 84
• Interest groups shape policy independent of citizen and elite preferences. #qualifies (0.74) — Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, Testing Theories of American Politics, 113