Average citizens have almost no independent influence over U.S. policy.

Evidence

But the picture changes markedly when all three independent variables are included in the multivariate Model 4 and are tested against each other. The estimated impact of average citizens’ preferences drops precipitously, to a non-significant, near-zero level. Clearly the median citizen or “median voter” at the heart of theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy does not do well when put up against economic elites and organized interest groups. The chief predictions of pure theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy can be decisively rejected. Not only do ordinary citizens not have uniquely substantial power over policy decisions; they have little or no independent influence on policy at all. — Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, Testing Theories of American Politics, 90

Categorization

• XREF: This is the core empirical instrument for measuring the reader’s ‘control deficit’ independent of narrative — the multivariate test where median-voter preference influence collapses to near zero. Connects directly to Gilens & Page AJPS 2014, the parent paper. — connects to: Average citizens have little independent influence on U.S. policy relative to economic elites. — Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, Testing Theories of American Politics:…, 1; Economic elites dominate US policy while average citizens exert little influence — Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, Testing Theories of American Politics:…, 11; Ordinary citizens hold little independent influence over U.S. policy (+5 more)
• ADDENDUM: Directly supplies the empirical grounding for the politicization-staircase question: actual policy influence by income percentile drops to nil at the median, which is the hard metric for who’s genuinely climbing from disadvantage vs. threatened privilege.

Broader Connections

• Ordinary citizens hold little independent influence over U.S. policy #corroborates (1.00)
• U.S. policy responds to elites and interest groups, not the public. #corroborates (0.90) — Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, Testing Theories of American Politics, 93
• Correlated elite and mass preferences do not reflect citizen influence on policy. #expands (0.85) — Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, Testing Theories of American Politics, 135
• Interest groups shape policy independent of citizen and elite preferences. #expands (0.82) — Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, Testing Theories of American Politics, 113
• Organized interest-group stances do not substantially track average citizens’ preferences. #expands (0.78) — Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, Testing Theories of American Politics, 76
• Even the United States falls short of full democratic protection #qualifies (0.75) — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 528