Rising governmental capacity raises revolution’s stakes and impact while reducing fragmentation

Evidence

In the case of Europe, the overall rise of governmental capacity profoundly transformed the prospects for revolutionary outcomes. Rising capacity meant that the stakes of revolution increased; it became less and less likely that a revolutionary coalition would walk away from an unsuccessful bid for power retaining control of its own region or segment of government. It reduced the frequency with which the very revolutionary seizure of power would fragment that power into partly autonomous segments, only some of them under command of the putative revolutionaries. But it also greatly increased the social impact of any revolutionary outcome that actually did occur. — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 1067

Categorization

• XREF: Direct payoff on the reader’s core hunt: how capacity shapes revolutionary outcomes, complementing the capacity/democracy matrix. — connects to: Revolutionary success requires security-force defection, elite division, and contagion waves — Vincent Bevins, If We Burn: The Mass Protest Decade and…, 89; High-capacity regimes route contention through government, making mobilization affect regime structure. — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 664; High regime capacity and democracy suppress revolutionary situations by raising organizing costs. — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 979 (+6 more)
• corroborated: 2 independent passages support this claim — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 1067

Broader Connections

• Rising state capacity raises revolution’s stakes and social impact while lowering its odds. #corroborates (0.95) — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 1067
• Governmental capacity causally shapes the character of contentious politics #expands (0.78) — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 1310
• High capacity and democracy suppress revolutionary situations while medium-capacity regimes favor outcomes #qualifies (0.75) — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 979
• Regime capacity, not just state consolidation, shapes revolutionary coalition frequency and type. #expands (0.75) — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 1043
• High-capacity mobilization hits the regime directly while low-capacity contention rarely does #expands (0.74)
• Revolutions happen when governmental weakness unblocks pressures, not when they are blocked #contradicts (0.72)