Even disconfirmation evidence often fails to break a person’s confirmation bias
Evidence
After this, thirteen subjects began to test their hypotheses and eventually arrived at the correct answer, which was “any three numbers in ascending order.” Once they had broken out of their “confirming” mindset, they were willing to entertain the idea that there might be more than one way to get the original series of numbers. This cannot explain, however, the nine subjects who gave two or more incorrect rules, for they were given ample evidence that their proposal was incorrect, but still could not find the right answer. Why didn’t they guess 9, 7, 5? Here Wason speculates that “they might not have known how to attempt to falsify a rule by themselves; or they might have known how to do it, but still found it simpler, more certain or more reassuring to get a straight answer from the experimenter.” In other words, at this point their cognitive bias had a firm hold on them, and they could only flail for the right answer. — Lee McIntyre, Post-Truth, 94
Categorization
- XREF: connects to: Disconfirming evidence can strengthen rather than weaken committed beliefs. — Philip Mirowski, Never Let a Serious Crisis Go to Waste, 97; Admitting a hoax does not deter believers from accepting its core message. — Michael Barkun, A Culture of Conspiracy: Apocalyptic…, 433; Insider-status claims outweigh lack of evidence for believers. — Michael Barkun, A Culture of Conspiracy: Apocalyptic…, 451 (+23 more)
Broader Connections
- Confirmation bias and inertia make reputations resistant to disconfirming evidence
#corroborates(0.90) - Belief systems reject disconfirming evidence rather than revising theories
#corroborates(0.85) - Repeated stereotypes create interpretive frames that filter out disconfirming evidence
#corroborates(0.85) — Carl W. Ernst, Islamophobia in America_ The Anatomy of…, 94 - Prejudice persists because people dismiss evidence contradicting existing attitudes
#corroborates(0.85) - Confirmation bias cements both reputations and habitual trust
#corroborates(0.85) — Diego Gambetta, Trust - Making and Breaking Cooperative…, 677 - Stereotypes validated through active reaffirmation resist contradictory evidence most strongly
#expands(0.80) — , Rudman, Laurie A - On the Nature of…, 1179 - Belief perseverance persists even when evidence establishing it is shown false
#exemplifies(0.80) — John T. Jost and Jim Sidanius, Political Psychology, 2586 - Lay theorists avoid seeking disconfirming evidence rather than falsifying hypotheses
#expands(0.80) - Resisting disconfirming evidence only becomes dogmatism after repeated failures
#qualifies(0.75) — Bob Altemeyer, The Authoritarian Specter, 2636