Even the most partisan reasoners eventually change beliefs under repeated corrective evidence

Evidence

Some have described trying to change politically salient mistaken beliefs with factual evidence as “trying to use water to fight a grease fire.” At least this would seem to be the case for the most partisan conservatives. As Nyhan and Reifler note in their study, however, it could hardly be true that the staunchest ideologues—of either political stripe—will never change their beliefs in light of factual evidence. Citing previous work on this question—and one minor result from their own study—they note that if partisans are exposed to the same discrediting information over and over again, they should become more sympathetic to corrective information. In one such study, David Redlawsk et al. consider the question of whether “motivated reasoners” ever get it, or just go on denying reality ad infinitum. Their conclusion corroborates Nyhan and Reifler’s speculation: even the strongest partisans will eventually reach a “tipping point” and change their beliefs after they are continually exposed to corrective evidence. — Lee McIntyre, Post-Truth, 110

Categorization

• XREF: Connects to the reader’s broader interest in stubborn political belief — the backfire effect literature and the ‘grease fire’ metaphor for fact-checking. — connects to: Bayes’ rule prescribes updating beliefs in proportion to incoming evidence — Sander van der Linden, Foolproof: Why Misinformation Infects…, 102; Even committed purveyors of false claims eventually yield to evidence — Sander van der Linden, Foolproof: Why Misinformation Infects…, 110; Presenting disconfirming evidence to partisans strengthens rather than weakens their views — Sander van der Linden, Foolproof: Why Misinformation Infects…, 132 (+9 more)
• QUESTION: Worth chasing: what distinguished the repeated exposers who tipped from those who never did in Redlawsk’s study?

Broader Connections

• Repeated truths eventually overcome even motivated reasoners’ resistance #corroborates (0.90) — Lee McIntyre, Post-Truth, 322
• Ideological change requires persistence against contrary immediate evidence #expands (0.85) — Angus Burgin, The Great Persuasion, 561
• Disconfirming evidence can strengthen rather than weaken committed beliefs. #contradicts (0.85) — Philip Mirowski, Never Let a Serious Crisis Go to Waste, 97
• People often resist or reverse belief updating rather than tracking evidence #contradicts (0.85) — Sander van der Linden, Foolproof, 104
• Correcting false beliefs can strengthen them rather than reduce them #contradicts (0.80) — Lee McIntyre, Post-Truth, 350
• Even disconfirmation evidence often fails to break a person’s confirmation bias #qualifies (0.80) — Lee McIntyre, Post-Truth, 94
• Repetition within echo chambers, not evidence, produces conspiracist assent #qualifies (0.75) — Russell Muirhead and Nancy L. Rosenblum, A Lot of People Are Saying, 129
• Scandals that fade for most people can harden beliefs among partisans #contradicts (0.75) — Albert Bandura, Moral Disengagement, 2764