Uncertainty alone does not cause violent extremism without moderating factors

Evidence

Based on our review, there is only little support for the hypothesis that a sense of uncertainty about the self causes a higher willingness to engage in violent extremist action or to identify with violent extremist groups. The majority of studies did not find a significant link between uncertainty and violent extremism. When there was a positive link, however, other factors such as openness to experience, male gender, low education, identification with the US democratic party (but not the US republican party), as well as a combined riskiness factor (i.e. consisting of perceived individual and collective relative deprivation, procedural injustice, symbolic and realistic threat facing the ingroup, and exclusion from decision-making) played a significant role. — Lea Echelmeyer, Anne-Marie Slotboom, and Frank Weerman, The Putative Effect of Identity on…, 231

Categorization

• XREF: Contradicts the influential uncertainty-identity theory of radicalization and is a key disconfirming result for the reader’s aggregate cross-check. — connects to: Rising uncertainty across identity boundaries amplifies and sharpens collective violence — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 775; Extremists show no elevated mental illness rates relative to the general population — Ryan Andrew Brown, Todd C. Helmus, Rajeev Ramchand, Alina I. Palimaru, Sarah Weilant, Ashley L. Rhoades, and Liisa Hiatt (RAND Corporation), Violent Extremism in America:…, 150; Personality traits moderate the link between uncertainty and political violence — Lea Echelmeyer, Anne-Marie Slotboom, and Frank Weerman, The Putative Effect of Identity on…, 267 (+7 more)
• QUESTION: Worth checking which specific uncertainty studies failed and whether the nulls used different measures than the positive ones.

Broader Connections

• Uncertainty alone rarely drives violent extremist willingness. #corroborates (0.96) — Lea Echelmeyer, Anne-Marie Slotboom, and Frank Weerman, The Putative Effect of Identity on…, 231
• Personality traits moderate the link between uncertainty and political violence #exemplifies (0.93) — Lea Echelmeyer, Anne-Marie Slotboom, and Frank Weerman, The Putative Effect of Identity on…, 267
• Personal uncertainty, perceived injustice, and group threat jointly drive radicalization #expands (0.88) — Lea Echelmeyer, Anne-Marie Slotboom, and Frank Weerman, The Putative Effect of Identity on…, 267
• Terrorism results from predispositions interacting with political context, not personality alone #expands (0.85) — John T. Jost and Jim Sidanius, Political Psychology, 4086
• Need for significance predicts extremism mainly when combined with discrimination or activist identity #exemplifies (0.84) — Lea Echelmeyer, Anne-Marie Slotboom, and Frank Weerman, The Putative Effect of Identity on…, 234
• Mental illness is not a major driver of extremism on its own #exemplifies (0.82) — Ryan Andrew Brown, Todd C. Helmus, Rajeev Ramchand, Alina I. Palimaru, Sarah Weilant, Ashley L. Rhoades, and Liisa Hiatt (RAND Corporation), Violent Extremism in America, 150
• Self-esteem needs predict extremism only through collective, not personal, mechanisms #exemplifies (0.78) — Lea Echelmeyer, Anne-Marie Slotboom, and Frank Weerman, The Putative Effect of Identity on…, 240
• Entrepreneurship, polarization, and rising uncertainty drive violence escalation across a boundary #qualifies (0.75) — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 773