Entrepreneurship, polarization, and rising uncertainty drive violence escalation across a boundary

Evidence

First, political entrepreneurs are engaged in their work of activation, connection, coordination, and representation. Second, polarization—widening of political and social space between claimants in a contentious episode and the gravitation of previously uncommitted or moderate actors toward one, the other, or both extremes—commonly accompanies or results from the work of entrepreneurs. Finally (often as a result of political brokerage and polarization), uncertainty rises across the boundary, as actors on each side have less reliable information, and more exaggerated estimates, concerning the likely actions on the other side. — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 773

Categorization

• XREF: Feed into the reader’s extension test: Tilly names the three escalation drivers — the question is which side of a regime’s boundary is best positioned to deploy brokerage and claim legitimate representation. — connects to: Collective violence nearly always activates a we-they boundary from among multiple available identities — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 769; Low- and high-coordination violence complement each other within sustained campaigns — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 826; Political violence stems from frustration at a gap between expectations and capabilities — John T. Jost and Jim Sidanius, Political Psychology, 4287 (+6 more)

Broader Connections

• Uncertainty, disadvantage, and competition in a setting amplify perceived threat. #expands (0.85) — Walter G. Stephan, Oscar Ybarra, Kimberly Rios Morrison, Intergroup Threat Theory, 13
• Adaptation capacity shapes whether socioeconomic change produces political violence #qualifies (0.80) — John T. Jost and Jim Sidanius, Political Psychology, 4345
• Boundary-based violence protests threats to social arrangements built on those boundaries #expands (0.78)
• Political violence stems from frustration at a gap between expectations and capabilities #expands (0.75) — John T. Jost and Jim Sidanius, Political Psychology, 4287