Rare violent events resist prediction by their causal structure alone

Evidence

Rare events are the result of a unique constellation of factors interacting with each other such that, were one or a couple of the factors absent, the shooting would not occur. Unique constellations of causes provide few predictive commonalities. Moreover, factors contributing to a unique combination of influences lose some of their predictiveness when they are considered separately from each other, because some of their causative influence may derive from their mutual influence. For example, neither bizarre beliefs alone nor substance abuse alone may be conducive to aggression, but in combination, they may increase the likelihood of aggressive behavior. — Albert Bandura, Moral Disengagement, 1279 (#expands, via linked claim)

Categorization

• XREF: connects to: Statistical models cannot anticipate events outside their sampled historical range — Mark Blyth, Austerity: The History of a Dangerous…, 112; Belief-based violence prediction fails because apocalypticists turn violent when feeling trapped — Michael Barkun, A Culture of Conspiracy: Apocalyptic…, 822; Event frequency in ACLED closely approximates victimization intensity despite equal event weighting. — Sandra Penic, Guy Elcheroth, and Dario Spini, When Is Collective Exposure to War…, 85 (+5 more)

Broader Connections

• Rare events resist prediction because their causes interact uniquely #expands (0.95)
• Rare events like mass shootings resist prediction because their causes interact uniquely #expands (0.92) — Albert Bandura, Moral Disengagement, 1279