Belief-based violence prediction fails because apocalypticists turn violent when feeling trapped

Evidence

As students of apocalyptic beliefs have learned, predictions of violence made on the basis of beliefs alone are notoriously unreliable. Infl ammatory rhetoric can come from otherwise peaceable individuals. It does appear, however, that apocalypticists are more likely to engage in violence if they believe themselves to be trapped or under attack. Both conditions are as much the product of their own perception as of outside forces. Measures that appear innocuous to some may seem threatening to others if the information is fi ltered through the appropriate belief system. — Michael Barkun, A Culture of Conspiracy, 822

Categorization

• XREF: connects to: Fringe conspiracy tales turn dangerous when individuals act violently on them — Michael Barkun, A Culture of Conspiracy: Apocalyptic…, 62; Conspiracy believers turn violent only when they believe the prophesied crisis has arrived — Michael Barkun, A Culture of Conspiracy: Apocalyptic…, 821; Rare violent events resist prediction by their causal structure alone (+2 more)

Broader Connections

• Rare violent events resist prediction by their causal structure alone #expands (0.85)
• Apocalyptic framing of conflict forecloses dialogue and compromise #corroborates (0.85)
• Cornered destructiveness stops distinguishing self-destruction from outward violence #expands (0.80) — Theodor W. Adorno, Minima Moralia, 118