Rare events like mass shootings resist prediction because their causes interact uniquely

Evidence

Rare events are the result of a unique constellation of factors interacting with each other such that, were one or a couple of the factors absent, the shooting would not occur. Unique constellations of causes provide few predictive commonalities. Moreover, factors contributing to a unique combination of influences lose some of their predictiveness when they are considered separately from each other, because some of their causative influence may derive from their mutual influence. For example, neither bizarre beliefs alone nor substance abuse alone may be conducive to aggression, but in combination, they may increase the likelihood of aggressive behavior. — Albert Bandura, Moral Disengagement, 1279

Categorization

• QUESTION: This systemic-constellation argument against prediction implies fear-based legislation exploits causal ignorance. Worth chasing the policy implication.
• SHARE: For someone interested in statistical causal inference or why rare-event prediction systems over-legislate on thin evidence.
• corroborated: 2 independent passages support this claim — Albert Bandura, Moral Disengagement: How People Do Harm…, 1279
• XREF: connects to: Contentious events in any setting fall into a limited number of repeating categories — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 313; Chance events are unforeseeable but their effects are scientifically analyzable; Rare violent events resist prediction by their causal structure alone