Contingent events are non-random yet depend on aberrant chance conditions

Evidence

Something is contingent if its occurrence depends on the presence of unusual (we might say aberrant) conditions that occur accidentally—conditions that involve a large component of chance. An auto accident clearly is contingent in this sense. Drivers may or may not make mistakes, cars may fatefully malfunction. It is with reason then that we call such occurrences “accidents.” Note immediately that contingency does not entail indeterminacy. We can specify that if a particular driver does something, an accident will probably occur. We can also determine general conditions that increase or decrease the probability of accidents. Contingencies thus are not random, and “may-may not” events can sometimes be controlled. — John T. Jost and Jim Sidanius, Political Psychology, 4266

Categorization

• DEFINE: Establishes a precise technical sense of ‘contingency’ distinct from mere randomness.
• corroborated: 2 independent passages support this claim — John T. Jost and Jim Sidanius, Political Psychology, 4266
• XREF: connects to: An event requires both teleological necessity and aleatory accident to occur — Catherine Malabou, The Future of Hegel: Plasticity,…, 54; Statistical models cannot anticipate events outside their sampled historical range — Mark Blyth, Austerity: The History of a Dangerous…, 112; Natural experiments use policy changes to produce quasi-random variation in data — Philip Mirowski & Dieter Plehwe (eds.), The Road from Mont Pèlerin: The Making…, 1936 (+1 more)