Islam will overtake Christianity in numbers through higher birth rates

Evidence

As stated in the introduction, “babies born to Muslims will begin to outnumber Christian births by 2035” (Pew Research Center 2017, 4). However, globally there will still be more Christians than Muslims in 2035. Projections show that this gap should close completely by 2060: “By 2060, Christians and Muslims will make up nearly equal shares of the world’s population.” (Pew Research Center 2017, 5). This demographic shift is largely attributed to the high fertility rates of Muslims in comparison to Christians along with age distribution differences. While Muslims have an average fertility rate of 2.9 children per woman, the average rate for Christians is 2.6 children per woman. In fact, “Muslims have the highest fertility rate of any religious group,” according to the report (Pew Research Center 2017, 15). — Margaret Hodson, Baby Jihad, 23 (#corroborates, via linked claim)

According to the CIA World Fact Book in 2005, the fertility rate in Algeria was 1.92, compared with 1.85 in France. In Turkey, Lebanon, Tunisia and Iran, figures were barely above replacement rates. — Matt Carr, You Are Now Entering Eurabia, 77 (#complicates, via linked claim)

By 2011 the Muslim population increased to 2,706,066, forming 4.8% of the total population of England and Wales. There were increases for all the minority faith groups, not only Muslims; however, there were examples of how the British press inflated the impact of the increase through alarmist commentary. Yet as Hussain and Sherif (2014) explain, the increase was in keeping with expected population growth due to the young demographic profile of minority groups, and Muslims in particular. — Runnymede Trust (ed. Farah Elahi & Omar Khan), Islamophobia, 204 (#complicates, via linked claim)

Categorization

• XREF: connects to: Muslim population growth stems mechanistically from migration age and birth rates — Runnymede Trust (ed. Farah Elahi & Omar Khan), Islamophobia: Still a Challenge for Us…, 205; Religious groups offset secularization losses through higher birth rates — Norenzayan, Ara, Big gods - how religion transformed…, 630; Dramatic demographic expansion is what makes a religion a world religion (+10 more)

Broader Connections

• Muslim and Christian population shares will converge by 2060 due to divergent fertility rates. #corroborates (0.95) — Margaret Hodson, Baby Jihad, 23
• Muslim-majority country fertility rates are near European levels #complicates (0.80) — Matt Carr, You Are Now Entering Eurabia, 77
• Press alarmism exaggerated Muslim population growth driven by normal demography #complicates (0.78) — Runnymede Trust (ed. Farah Elahi & Omar Khan), Islamophobia, 204