By 2050 only one in five Christians will be of European descent

Evidence

The Pew Research Center 2017 report indicates the minimal impact of religious switching on projected demographic changes. Most religious switching occurs from Christianity to religiously unaffiliated, with a very small amount of demographic change generated by conversion from Christianity to Islam. According to the report, “the net impact of religious switching [from 2010 to 2015] accounted for an estimated 23% of unaffiliated growth and 0.3% of Muslim growth while reducing Christian growth by 7%.” (p. 7). Overall, religious switching from 2010–15 led to a -9.0 million decrease in the number of Christians worldwide, a +0.5 increase in Muslims, and a +8.0 million increase in religiously unaffiliated. — Margaret Hodson, Baby Jihad, 32 (#qualifies, via linked claim)

As stated in the introduction, “babies born to Muslims will begin to outnumber Christian births by 2035” (Pew Research Center 2017, 4). However, globally there will still be more Christians than Muslims in 2035. Projections show that this gap should close completely by 2060: “By 2060, Christians and Muslims will make up nearly equal shares of the world’s population.” (Pew Research Center 2017, 5). This demographic shift is largely attributed to the high fertility rates of Muslims in comparison to Christians along with age distribution differences. While Muslims have an average fertility rate of 2.9 children per woman, the average rate for Christians is 2.6 children per woman. In fact, “Muslims have the highest fertility rate of any religious group,” according to the report (Pew Research Center 2017, 15). — Margaret Hodson, Baby Jihad, 23 (#corroborates, via linked claim)

Categorization

• XREF: connects to: Religious switching barely affects global religious demographics. — Margaret Hodson, Baby Jihad, 32; Specifically, I will examine recent demographic data from the Pew Templeton Global Futures project Changing Global Religious Landscape Report published in April 2017. This report outlines historical demographic data from 2010-2015 and projected trends for 2015–2060 based on religious group. Additionally, for data on migration, I’ll use the 2015 The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010–2050 from the Pew Research Center. Within each subsection of the article, I will first present the relevant demographic data. Then, I will analyze white nationalist fears stoked by projected or historical demographic changes. It is important to note that much of the literature reviewed in this article was written before the two Pew reports were released. Only one author directly cites data from the Pew Research Center in his work about demography as jihad. However, my goal is to put demographic data and anti-Muslim views into conversation. I seek to show the linkages (or lack thereof) to better understand white nationalist fears. Overall, demographic data can provide a fuller picture of these fears. Demographic projections show massive changes in the future religious make-up of the global population. Specifically, the 2017 Pew Research Center report projects that ‘babies born to Muslims will begin to outnumber Christian births by 2035.’ In addition, the number of Muslims globally is predicted to equal the number of Christians by 2060 (p. 5). The primary factors impacting demographic changes are fertility rates, age distribution, religious switching, and migration. Fertility rates and age distribution have the largest effect on shifting demography, while religious switching and migration have much smaller effects.; Muslim and Christian population shares will converge by 2060 due to divergent fertility rates. — Margaret Hodson, Baby Jihad, 23 (+1 more)

Related

• Religious switching barely affects global religious demographics. (similarity 0.92)
• Specifically, I will examine recent demographic data from the Pew Templeton Global Futures project Changing Global Religious Landscape Report published in April 2017. This report outlines… (similarity 0.90)
• Migration affects demographics less than fertility rates and age distribution. (similarity 0.89)
• Fertility and age structure dwarf conversion in shaping religious demographics. (similarity 0.88)
• Muslim and Christian population shares will converge by 2060 due to divergent fertility rates. (similarity 0.88)
• Religious switching had minimal impact on projected demographic changes, with conversions generating only 0.3% of Muslim growth. (similarity 0.86)
• Dramatic demographic expansion is what makes a religion a world religion (similarity 0.86)
• Rates of religious switching do not reflect moral decay (similarity 0.86)
• White nationalists believe this increase in switching to religiously unaffiliated causes lower fertility and birth rates for Western women. William Kilpatrick writes that ‘The decline of… (similarity 0.84)
• Religious population growth follows age structures, with Christianity aging out already in Europe. (similarity 0.84)
• Religiosity is only one factor impacting fertility rates, and is intertwined with educational opportunities, economic development, and age of marriage amongst other factors. (similarity 0.84)
• Religious belief correlates with higher fertility, shrinking secular populations (similarity 0.82)
• There is indeed a perceived threat from within Western society due to religious switching, secularism, and lower fertility rates. However, the threat is also viewed as externally imposed on… (similarity 0.82)
• The demography-as-jihad variant of Islamophobia has been understudied (similarity 0.82)
• White nationalists frame Muslim demographic change as an existential threat (similarity 0.81)

Broader Connections

• Specifically, I will examine recent demographic data from the Pew Templeton Global Futures project Changing Global Religious Landscape Report published in April 2017. This report outlines… #corroborates (0.85)
• Religious switching barely affects global religious demographics. #qualifies (0.80) — Margaret Hodson, Baby Jihad, 32
• Muslim and Christian population shares will converge by 2060 due to divergent fertility rates. #corroborates (0.80) — Margaret Hodson, Baby Jihad, 23
• Religious population growth follows age structures, with Christianity aging out already in Europe. #expands (0.80) — Margaret Hodson, Baby Jihad, 23