Muslim and Christian population shares will converge by 2060 due to divergent fertility rates.

Evidence

As stated in the introduction, “babies born to Muslims will begin to outnumber Christian births by 2035” (Pew Research Center 2017, 4). However, globally there will still be more Christians than Muslims in 2035. Projections show that this gap should close completely by 2060: “By 2060, Christians and Muslims will make up nearly equal shares of the world’s population.” (Pew Research Center 2017, 5). This demographic shift is largely attributed to the high fertility rates of Muslims in comparison to Christians along with age distribution differences. While Muslims have an average fertility rate of 2.9 children per woman, the average rate for Christians is 2.6 children per woman. In fact, “Muslims have the highest fertility rate of any religious group,” according to the report (Pew Research Center 2017, 15). — Margaret Hodson, Baby Jihad, 23

Categorization

• SEED: This projection is ripe for a fact-check or ‘what would need to change’ analysis piece on how these curves could be altered.
• XREF: connects to: India will host the world’s largest Muslim population by 2060 despite Hindu dominance — Arsalan Iftikhar, Fear of a Muslim Planet_ Global…, 182; Migration drives roughly half of Europe’s projected Muslim population growth to 2050. — Margaret Hodson, Baby Jihad, 24; By 2050 only one in five Christians will be of European descent

Broader Connections

• India will host the world’s largest Muslim population by 2060 despite Hindu dominance #expands (0.70) — Arsalan Iftikhar, Fear of a Muslim Planet_ Global…, 182
• Migration drives roughly half of Europe’s projected Muslim population growth to 2050. #qualifies (0.40) — Margaret Hodson, Baby Jihad, 24