Rates of religious switching do not reflect moral decay
Evidence
Religious switching encompasses not only conversion from Islam to Christianity, but also movement from Christianity to the category of religiously unaffiliated. Alt-right commentators explicitly link declining Christian religiosity to declining Western demographics. Specifically, these anti-Muslim thinkers believe moral decay leads to declining Christian religiosity, which in turn leads to lower Western fertility rates. Pew Research data do show that religiously affiliated women have higher birth rates than religiously unaffiliated women. The 2017 Pew Templeton Global Religious Futures project report predicts that “the 2015 to 2020 total fertility rate for religiously unaffiliated women is projected to be 1.6 children per woman, nearly a full child less than the rate of 2.5 children per woman for religiously affiliated women” (p. 18). However, there is no evidence that moral decay causes both religious switching and lower fertility rates. The white nationalist fears of moral decay and secularism indicate anxieties about internal threats from within Western society. — Margaret Hodson, Baby Jihad, 48
Categorization
- XREF: Connects to fertility research and secularization theory debates. — connects to: White nationalists believe this increase in switching to religiously unaffiliated causes lower fertility and birth rates for Western women. William Kilpatrick writes that ‘The decline of Christianity in Europe led to a loss of cultural confidence and a loss of will. This loss of faith also translated into a declining birth rate.’ (2016, 131). As stated above, Pew Research Center (2107) confirms that religiously unaffiliated women are projected to have lower fertility rates than religiously affiliated women. However, religiosity is only one factor impacting fertility rates, and is intertwined with educational opportunities, economic development, and age of marriage amongst other factors. However, here begins a shift from internal factors within Western society to external threats. There is indeed a perceived threat from within Western society due to religious switching, secularism, and lower fertility rates. However, the threat is also viewed as externally imposed on Western society in the form of ‘baby jihad.’ As shown above, religious switching has little impact on demographic changes. Therefore, white nationalist fears of religious switching impacting demography indicate greater fears about national security and cultural values. However, there are data to support large demographic shifts due to differing fertility rates and age distributions. White nationalists view demography as a form of jihad, and thus fear these projected changes.
- QUESTION: The passage exposes a causal gap — worth chasing the actual drivers of religious switching.