Regime trajectory changes produce shifts in challengers’ political opportunity structure

Evidence

Harking back to earlier arguments, what does this description of South Africa’s regime trajectory imply for changes in contentious repertoires? We expect such a trajectory to create major shifts in political opportunity structure for all of South Africa’s political actors, especially its challengers. Remember the elements of POS: (a) the multiplicity of independent centers of power within the regime; (b) the openness of the regime to new actors; (c) the instability of current political alignments; (d) the availability of influential allies or supporters; (e) the extent to which the regime represses or facilitates collective claim-mking; and (f) decisive changes in (a) to (e). — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 629

Categorization

• DEFINE: The reader needs a precise statement of POS elements to test repertoire-regime covariation — this enumerates all six.
• corroborated: 2 independent passages support this claim — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 629
• XREF: connects to: Electoral defeat of hardliners triggers concessions to challengers — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 581; Regimes shape political opportunity structure through toleration and forbidding choices — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 445; Regime-internal shifts, not challenger agency or external pressure, initiate repertoire change — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 657 (+5 more)

Broader Connections

• Regime shifts can selectively open opportunity to specific activist constituencies while excluding others. #expands (0.85) — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 1175
• Regime-internal shifts, not challenger agency or external pressure, initiate repertoire change #expands (0.84) — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 657
• Regimes shape political opportunity structure through toleration and forbidding choices #expands (0.82) — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 445
• Regime change and contention mutually shape each other over long periods #complicates (0.80) — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 549
• Political opportunity structure has five static components and consists dynamically of change in them #expands (0.80) — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 1175
• Negotiation with opponents during a regime’s crisis shapes post-regime party alignment #exemplifies (0.75) — Anna M. Grzymala-Busse, Redeeming The Communist Past, 171
• Authoritarian coalition-building approaches shape post-transition political incentives. #exemplifies (0.72) — Johan Brosché and Hanne Fjelde and Kristine Höglund, Electoral violence and the legacy of…, 30