No simple direct relationship links socioeconomic change to political violence

Evidence

In any case, an impressive number of studies suggests that there is no simple, direct relationship between rates of socioeconomic change and political violence. The relationship, again, seems unusually ambiguous. Tanter and Midlarsky (1967) found a negative relationship between economic growth and, as they use the term, “revolutions” in Latin America, but a positive relationship in the Middle East and Asia. Bwy (1968b) confirms the Latin-American result, but argues that a different relationship among the variables holds for less developed countries. Flanigan and Fogelman (1970) find a negative relationship; Alker and Russett (1964) find the same. On the other hand, the Feierabends and Nesvold (1969) report a high association between rate of modernization and “instability.” Hibbs (1973) finds different relations between rapid change and different types of political violence. And so it goes, in a very extensive set of works. — John T. Jost and Jim Sidanius, Political Psychology, 4343

Categorization

• QUESTION: Why would the modernization-instability link flip sign between Latin America and the Middle East/Asia? Worth chasing the original Tanter and Midlarsky data.
• XREF: connects to: Collective violence shifts with changing opportunity structures, not static conditions — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 817; Work failure, social rejection, and abuse predict resorting to political violence — Ryan Andrew Brown, Todd C. Helmus, Rajeev Ramchand, Alina I. Palimaru, Sarah Weilant, Ashley L. Rhoades, and Liisa Hiatt (RAND Corporation), Violent Extremism in America:…, 160