Conflict predictors are consistent but their causal links to violence are not

Evidence

We found that theories in the field do divide along the lines indicated. And we reviewed many empirical studies that bear on expectations deduced from the postulates of the antithetical approaches. No clear result emerged. Granted, conditions such as inequalities, unsatisfied demands, discrimination, and societal cleavages are related consistently to degrees of conflict. What remains mysterious, in the end, is the basic nature of the link between causes and effects—not least, therefore, understanding why similar conditions so often have dissimilar results. — John T. Jost and Jim Sidanius, Political Psychology, 4366

Categorization

• QUESTION: The mystery of why similar structural conditions yield dissimilar conflict outcomes is worth chasing in comparative politics or case-study literature.
• XREF: connects to: Ethnic and religious fragmentation weakly predict civil war; feasibility of insurgency does — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 809; Total-damage measures of violence cannot explain regime-violence interactions — Charles Tilly, Regimes and Repertoires, 719; Work failure, social rejection, and abuse predict resorting to political violence — Ryan Andrew Brown, Todd C. Helmus, Rajeev Ramchand, Alina I. Palimaru, Sarah Weilant, Ashley L. Rhoades, and Liisa Hiatt (RAND Corporation), Violent Extremism in America:…, 160