Nazi gains in exposed cities appeared only after the banking crisis, not before.

Evidence

Economic factors. Column (1) in Table 4, panel A indicates that in municipalities with a Danat presence incomes fell by 6.5% more than in those that did not have one. When we control for province fixed effects, the effect remains significant at the 5% level and increases in magnitude to 7.8% (column 2). This is a dramatic difference: the Danat-induced drop in incomes represents 54% of the mean income decline of 14.4% over the period 1928 to 1934, or 0.44 sd. Income declines went hand-in-hand with greater electoral support for the Nazi Party. Columns (3)–(6) suggest that, for every standard deviation drop in income, Nazi voting surged by an extra 0.7 p.p. from 1930-July 1932 (column 3), by 0.9 p.p. for 1930-November 1932 (column 4), and by 1 p.p. for 1930-March 1933 (column 5). … The majority of papers on the rise of the Nazi Party rely on unemployment data and has found little evidence of immiserization as a major driving force. Based on new data, we provide the first evidence that falling incomes increased support for the Nazi movement. — Sebastian Doerr et al., Financial Crises and Political…, 107 (#contradicts, via linked claim)

Table 10 examines whether cities with a presence of Danatbank already experienced a sharper downturn in economic activity in the early phase of the Great Depression, that is, before July 1931. To this end, it reports results for variations of our baseline regression (see equation (2)), where the outcome variables are different measures of unemployment (in levels or changes) at the city level. Column (1) shows that cities with a Danat presence did not see a statistically significant change in the unemployment rate from 1929 to 1930, relative to cities with no Danat presence. Column (2) reports a similar result for the change in the unemployment rate from 1930 to 1931. Column (3) shows that there were also no significant differences in the 1930 unemployment rate across cities with and without Danat’s presence. — Sebastian Doerr et al., Financial Crises and Political…, 144 (#corroborates, via linked claim)

Categorization

• XREF: connects to: Nazi vote share gained an extra 2.5 percentage points in Danat-exposed cities. — Sebastian Doerr et al., Financial Crises and Political…, 96; Danatbank-exposed cities saw a 2.9-percentage-point extra rise in Nazi vote share.; Falling local incomes from the banking crisis raised Nazi vote share substantially — Sebastian Doerr et al., Financial Crises and Political…, 107 (+1 more)

Related

• Falling local incomes from the banking crisis raised Nazi vote share substantially (similarity 0.94)
• Danatbank-exposed cities saw a 2.9-percentage-point extra rise in Nazi vote share. (similarity 0.90)
• Danat-exposed cities had no pre-crisis unemployment divergence from other cities (similarity 0.89)
• Nazi vote share gained an extra 2.5 percentage points in Danat-exposed cities. (similarity 0.89)
• Nazi gains in Danat-exposed cities emerged only after the bank’s collapse (similarity 0.89)
• Danat-exposed cities showed no sharper pre-July-1931 unemployment downturn than other cities. (similarity 0.88)
• Danat’s 1920s lending expansion did not select riskier borrowers (similarity 0.88)
• Exposure to Danat predicted worsening unemployment only after the bank’s failure. (similarity 0.88)
• Danat-exposed cities did not differ systematically on observable characteristics. (similarity 0.88)
• Danat exposure raised Nazi voting 1.7 to 2.5 percentage points across robustness checks. (similarity 0.87)
• Exposure to Danatbank failure raised Nazi vote shares by roughly 3 percentage points (similarity 0.87)
• Continuous exposure measures confirm Danat exposure boosted Nazi voting (similarity 0.86)
• The Danat collapse boosted Nazi votes beyond nationwide crisis effects (similarity 0.85)
• Danat exposure caused worsening unemployment only after the bank failed (similarity 0.85)
• Danatbank exposure raised Nazi vote share across multiple federal elections. (similarity 0.84)

Broader Connections

• Falling local incomes from the banking crisis raised Nazi vote share substantially #contradicts (0.90) — Sebastian Doerr et al., Financial Crises and Political…, 107
• Danat-exposed cities had no pre-crisis unemployment divergence from other cities #corroborates (0.85) — Sebastian Doerr et al., Financial Crises and Political…, 144