Danat-exposed cities had no pre-crisis unemployment divergence from other cities

Evidence

Table 10 examines whether cities with a presence of Danatbank already experienced a sharper downturn in economic activity in the early phase of the Great Depression, that is, before July 1931. To this end, it reports results for variations of our baseline regression (see equation (2)), where the outcome variables are different measures of unemployment (in levels or changes) at the city level. Column (1) shows that cities with a Danat presence did not see a statistically significant change in the unemployment rate from 1929 to 1930, relative to cities with no Danat presence. Column (2) reports a similar result for the change in the unemployment rate from 1930 to 1931. Column (3) shows that there were also no significant differences in the 1930 unemployment rate across cities with and without Danat’s presence. — Sebastian Doerr et al., Financial Crises and Political…, 144

Categorization

• XREF: connects to: Danat-exposed cities did not differ systematically on observable characteristics.; Nazi gains in exposed cities appeared only after the banking crisis, not before.; Danat’s 1920s lending expansion did not select riskier borrowers (+1 more)

Related

• Danat’s 1920s lending expansion did not select riskier borrowers (similarity 0.95)
• Danat-exposed cities showed no sharper pre-July-1931 unemployment downturn than other cities. (similarity 0.95)
• Exposure to Danat predicted worsening unemployment only after the bank’s failure. (similarity 0.93)
• Danat exposure caused worsening unemployment only after the bank failed (similarity 0.92)
• Danat-exposed cities did not differ systematically on observable characteristics. (similarity 0.90)
• Nazi gains in exposed cities appeared only after the banking crisis, not before. (similarity 0.89)
• Pre-1921 Danat exposure predicts identical effects to later connections. (similarity 0.84)
• Nazi gains in Danat-exposed cities emerged only after the bank’s collapse (similarity 0.83)
• Income effects rely on long differences plus a parallel-trends unemployment check. (similarity 0.83)
• Danatbank-exposed cities saw a 2.9-percentage-point extra rise in Nazi vote share. (similarity 0.81)
• Danat exposure raised Nazi voting 1.7 to 2.5 percentage points across robustness checks. (similarity 0.80)
• Continuous exposure measures confirm Danat exposure boosted Nazi voting (similarity 0.80)
• Exposure to Danatbank failure raised Nazi vote shares by roughly 3 percentage points (similarity 0.80)
• Nazi vote share gained an extra 2.5 percentage points in Danat-exposed cities. (similarity 0.80)
• Danat exposure is orthogonal to observable city characteristics except population. (similarity 0.80)

Broader Connections

• Danat exposure caused worsening unemployment only after the bank failed #expands (0.90) — Sebastian Doerr et al., Financial Crises and Political…, 146