Ethnic parties shift toward moderation only after securing dominance over in-group rivals

Evidence

The peace process as shepherded by the British and Irish governments, and the political institutions associated with the Good Friday Agreement, have—to a certain extent— incentivized the moderation of Sinn Fe´in and the DUP. But this was only possible after they had secured electoral dominance over their in-group rivals. Given the ethnic basis of the political system, such moderation is limited. But at the time of writing we enter uncharted territory—Sinn Fe´in and the DUP have entered into a power-sharing Executive. A key question remains: will the experience of sharing power lead to further moderation? — Cathy Gormley-Heenan and Roger Macginty, Ethnic Outbidding and Party…, 103

Categorization

• QUESTION: Central to whether threatened-privilege/outbidding dynamics can reverse: does power-sharing itself moderate, or only electoral dominance?
• XREF: Speaks directly to the minority-outbidding literature across axes and the regime-type comparison against Kenya/Zambia. — connects to: Outbidding parties poach defectors from moderate rivals to consolidate in-group unity. — Cathy Gormley-Heenan and Roger Macginty, Ethnic Outbidding and Party…, 54; Hardline ethnic parties can modernize and thrive in peace processes. — Cathy Gormley-Heenan and Roger Macginty, Ethnic Outbidding and Party…, 73; Patronage-based ethnic mobilization fosters zero-sum perceptions and fragmented opposition. — Johan Brosché and Hanne Fjelde and Kristine Höglund, Electoral violence and the legacy of…, 58 (+2 more)
• ADDENDUM: Sequel to the sacrifice piece’s motif that costly symbolic acts precede status shifts; here too electoral dominance must temporally precede moderation.

Related

• Hardline ethnic parties can modernize and thrive in peace processes. (similarity 0.86)
• Outbidding is context dependent and can phase-shift toward moderation after in-group victory (similarity 0.85)
• Outbidding and party modernization mutually reinforce each other rather than conflict (similarity 0.81)
• Ethnic outbidding can be modulated and coexist with party modernization (similarity 0.81)
• Sectarian outbidding parties can still adopt modern party organization (similarity 0.81)
• Ethnic outbidding is intra-bloc competition that blocks inter-group compromise. (similarity 0.80)
• Outbidding parties poach defectors from moderate rivals to consolidate in-group unity. (similarity 0.79)
• Ethnonational parties can simultaneously outbid rivals and modernize (similarity 0.79)
• The DUP shifted from unionist vote-sharing pacts to outbidding rival unionist parties. (similarity 0.79)
• Ethnic outbidding intensity fluctuates over a peace process’s timeline, not continuously (similarity 0.78)