Confident forecasts of legal outcomes often rest on almost nothing but intuition.

Evidence

Mock trials are best at identifying the strengths and weaknesses of a case rather than predicting the size of jury awards, but Schlichtmann had found mock juries to be pretty accurate in the past. For now, though, the chart for Uncle Pete would have to suffice. It looked scientific, even fancy, like a sales brochure for a shiny new product, and Schlichtmann believed in it. His common sense told him it was right. But in truth, it was based on little more than intuition and a hope that everything would go according to plan. — , Harr Jonathan - A Civil Action, 1147

Categorization

• XREF: Connects to the earlier highlights about financial derivatives and Black-Scholes, where a formal-looking pricing model performed reality rather than describing it. — connects to: Speculation addresses incalculable uncertainty, not merely probabilistic risk. — Aris Komporozos-Athanasiou, Speculative Communities: Living With…, 54; Legal reasoning reduces to the judge drawing distinctions and the lawyer predicting them — Ruggero J. Aldisert, Agatha D. Aldisert, Logic for Lawyers- A Guide to Clear…, 1301; Legal reasoning yields probability rather than absolute mathematical truths — Ruggero J. Aldisert, Agatha D. Aldisert, Logic for Lawyers- A Guide to Clear…, 242 (+9 more)

Broader Connections

• Legal outcomes depend on variable choices and value judgments rather than absolutes. #exemplifies (0.95) — Ruggero J. Aldisert, Agatha D. Aldisert, Logic for Lawyers- A Guide to Clear…, 752
• Speculation addresses incalculable uncertainty, not merely probabilistic risk. #complicates (0.85) — Aris Komporozos-Athanasiou, Speculative Communities, 54
• Legal reasoning reduces to the judge drawing distinctions and the lawyer predicting them #complicates (0.85) — Ruggero J. Aldisert, Agatha D. Aldisert, Logic for Lawyers- A Guide to Clear…, 1301
• Legal reasoning yields probability rather than absolute mathematical truths #complicates (0.85) — Ruggero J. Aldisert, Agatha D. Aldisert, Logic for Lawyers- A Guide to Clear…, 242
• Inductive legal generalization produces workable probabilities rather than absolute truths. #complicates (0.85) — Ruggero J. Aldisert, Agatha D. Aldisert, Logic for Lawyers- A Guide to Clear…, 339
• Common folk views of law overstate its certainty and finality #complicates (0.85) — G. Alan Tarr, Judicial Process and Judicial…, 186
• Common sense is a chaotic aggregate allowing any claim to be confirmed #complicates (0.85) — Antonio Gramsci, Selections from the Prison Notebooks, 1510
• Legal inductions represent probabilities rather than absolute truths. #complicates (0.85) — Ruggero J. Aldisert, Agatha D. Aldisert, Logic for Lawyers- A Guide to Clear…, 550
• Speculation is an imaginative act confronting uncertainty, not mere risk-taking #complicates (0.85) — Aris Komporozos-Athanasiou, Speculative Communities, 85
• Speculative intimacies are anxious wagers offering scant hope against uncertainty #complicates (0.85)
• Most litigation arises because the meaning of law is uncertain #complicates (0.85) — G. Alan Tarr, Judicial Process and Judicial…, 195