Volume economies of behavioral surplus gave way to quality of prediction
Evidence
The first wave of prediction products enabled targeted online advertising. These products depended upon surplus derived at scale from the internet. I have summarized the competitive forces that drive the need for surplus at scale as the “extraction imperative.” Competition for surveillance revenues eventually reached a point at which the volume of surplus became a necessary but insufficient condition for success. The next threshold was defined by the quality of prediction products. In the race for higher degrees of certainty, it became clear that the best predictions would have to approximate observation. The prediction imperative is the expression of these competitive forces. — Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism, 621
Categorization
- DEFINE: Distinguishes extraction imperative (scale of surplus) from prediction imperative (quality/observation-approximating prediction).
- XREF: The ‘best predictions approximate observation’ thesis connects to the reader’s foundations in behavioral surplus as a defining account of the digital economy. — connects to: Behavioral surplus forecasting power drives a second imperative beyond extraction — Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism, 620; Modified behavior yields the most predictive behavioral surplus of all — Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism, 929; Selling predictions of human behavior superseded serving genuine needs in web economics — Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism, 293 (+2 more)
Broader Connections
- Behavioral surplus forecasting power drives a second imperative beyond extraction
#expands(0.85) — Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism, 620 - Modified behavior yields the most predictive behavioral surplus of all
#expands(0.80) — Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism, 929 - Selling predictions of human behavior superseded serving genuine needs in web economics
#complicates(0.78) — Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism, 293 - Platforms extract behavioral surplus from human activity to predict and modify it.
#corroborates(0.75) — , The Braided Reading EPUB, 809