Treating statistical laws as necessary in politics leads to catastrophic practical errors

Evidence

Under such conditions the public becomes a mere statistical artifact, public taste a measure of private opinion that has been both cultivated and objectified but not realized in discourse. With that the public sphere goes into eclipse. — James W. Carey, Communication as Culture- Essays on…, 647 (#corroborates, via linked claim)

Underlying this threat that one “may” retaliate or precipitate war—the decision being somewhat beyond his control—is the notion that some of the most momentous decisions of government are taken by a process that is not entirely predictable, not fully “under control,” not altogether deliberate. It implies that a nation can get even into a major war somewhat inadvertently, by a decision process that might be called “imperfect” in the sense that the response to particular contingencies cannot exactly be foretold by any advance calculations, that the response to a particular contingency may depend on certain random or haphazard processes, or that there will be faulty information, faulty communication, misunderstanding, misuse of authority, panic, or human or mechanical failure. — Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, 453 (#exemplifies, via linked claim)

Categorization

• XREF: connects to: Laws limit but can never inspire political action; Political acts can be erroneous, not merely structural reflexes; Official statistics constitute state administrative power rather than merely recording it — Anthony Giddens, The Consequences of Modernity, 107 (+6 more)

Broader Connections

• Political acts can be erroneous, not merely structural reflexes #expands (0.82)
• The public sphere collapses when the public becomes a statistical artifact #corroborates (0.80) — James W. Carey, Communication as Culture- Essays on…, 647
• Governments can enter major wars inadvertently through imperfect decision processes #exemplifies (0.80) — Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, 453
• Converse accident is erroneously creating a general rule from insufficient data. #contradicts (0.78) — Ruggero J. Aldisert, Agatha D. Aldisert, Logic for Lawyers- A Guide to Clear…, 1117
• Official statistics constitute state administrative power rather than merely recording it #corroborates (0.75) — Anthony Giddens, The Consequences of Modernity, 107
• Misusing a concept’s level of abstraction produces serious theoretical error. #expands (0.75)
• Evidence-based advocacy fails when the political configuration is unready for it #corroborates (0.72) — , The Rod and the Child, 9030
• Inductive legal generalization produces workable probabilities rather than absolute truths. #corroborates (0.72) — Ruggero J. Aldisert, Agatha D. Aldisert, Logic for Lawyers- A Guide to Clear…, 339