Small, low-consequence choices can unintentionally ignite self-reinforcing lock-in

Evidence

Phase I—the Preformation Phase—is characterized by a broad scope of action. The effect of a choice of options cannot be predicted (see also Mahoney, 2000: 511). Once a decision is made, this choice may, however, amount to a small event that unintentionally sets off a selfreinforcing process. This moment of entering into the dynamics of a self-reinforcing process can be thought of as a “critical juncture” (Collier & Collier, 1991), and it indicates the end of the Preformation Phase. Drawing on complexity theory, this transition comes close to “bifurcation” (Kauffman, 1993). — Jörg Sydow, Georg Schreyögg, and Jochen Koch, Organizational Path Dependence, 24

Categorization

• CANDY: The image of a trivial decision silently tipping an organization into an irreversible dynamic is a great elevator-conversation hook.
• FICTION: A hero’s offhand, forgotten decision is the seed of the entire plot’s trap — the mechanism for how a character ends up somewhere they never chose.
• STORYSTEM: Story idea: a protagonist’s single small courtesy sparks an institutional cascade they can never unwind, and no one can point to the moment it became irreversible.
• XREF: Bridges to complexity theory’s ‘bifurcation’ and to path-dependence work by Arthur and Mahoney on increasing returns.