Sanctions and withdrawal from the Iran deal incentivize nuclear proliferation

Evidence

Early in the Cold War weapons of mass destruction met this requirement. They were prohibitively expensive, and only the richest two superpowers had nukes. But as the race progressed, warheads got cheaper. The cost of conventional weapons—submarines, fighters, and carriers, for example—soared, but the nuclear warheads themselves got smaller and cheaper. Pretty soon, England and France were testing nuclear warheads, then China and South Africa. By the 1970s India had successfully tested nuclear warheads, too, and by the 1990s so had Pakistan. Now, Israel and North Korea have them as well. The most important precondition for deterrence is disappearing. — Emlen, Douglas J, Animal Weapons_ The Evolution of Battle, 602 (#corroborates, via linked claim)

Categorization

• XREF: connects to: Sanctions crippled Iran’s economy but failed to alter its foreign policy — Deepa Kumar, Islamophobia and the Politics of…, 523; Sanctions threats incentivize proliferators to build larger nuclear programs before negotiating. — Deepa Kumar, Islamophobia and the Politics of…, 535; Sanctions pressure backfired by accelerating Iran’s nuclear program (+12 more)

Broader Connections

• Iran’s nuclear ambition is a rational security response to encirclement #corroborates (1.00)
• Iran’s nuclear ambitions are rational given its security environment #corroborates (1.00)
• Nuclear weapons grew cheaper as they proliferated, undermining deterrence #corroborates (0.95) — Emlen, Douglas J, Animal Weapons_ The Evolution of Battle, 602
• Civilization-level nuclear proliferation could produce stability rather than chaos #complicates (0.90) — Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the…, 888
• Cheapening nuclear weapons is eroding the precondition for deterrence #complicates (0.85)