Sanctions threats incentivize proliferators to build larger nuclear programs before negotiating.

Evidence

As Middle East scholar Vali Nasr of the liberal interventionist camp wrote: The Trump administration has taught Iran—and all aspirants seeking to join the nuclear club—the wrong lessons: that they should have a bigger nuclear program before talking, negotiate incrementally, and give up nuclear assets slowly lest sanctions come back. — Deepa Kumar, Islamophobia and the Politics of Empire, 535

Categorization

• CANDY: A crisp, quotable counterintuitive mechanism — sanctions pressure backfires by rewarding larger programs.
• corroborated: 2 independent passages support this claim — Deepa Kumar, Islamophobia and the Politics of…, 535
• XREF: connects to: Sanctions and withdrawal from the Iran deal incentivize nuclear proliferation; Sanctions pressure backfired by accelerating Iran’s nuclear program

Broader Connections

• Sanctions pressure backfired by accelerating Iran’s nuclear program #exemplifies (0.90)
• Sanctions and withdrawal from the Iran deal incentivize nuclear proliferation #corroborates (0.85)