Nonviolent-tactics doctrine failed in Ukraine because its prerequisites were absent

Evidence

Ideally, a resistance movement can employ diverse tactics to put pressure on the state—strikes and boycotts are especially effective. These are core tenets of the literature and training, building on the works of US political scientist Gene Sharp, that had informed many activist NGOs and civil society groups since the onset of the “color revolution.” But in Ukraine, union structures were weak, much of the industrial heartland didn’t actually support Maidan, and boycotts were tepid (this situation is not so unique to Ukraine in the mass protest decade starting in 2010—strikes and boycotts have mostly taken a back seat to highly visible, massive street actions). Generally, the thinking has been that violent uprisings will alienate security forces (who must defect to your side unless you can beat them in a war) and the international community. But after months of deadlock, the extremist minority, who were experienced specialists in the practice of violence, offered another approach. They had top-down decision-making, and they had a coherent strategy. They had been preparing for a war (against the left and Russia) for years. — Vincent Bevins, If We Burn, 501

Categorization

• XREF: Gene Sharp and the color-revolution toolkit connect directly to Bevins’s larger argument about how protest method was exported — echoes earlier chapters’ treatment of trained NGOs. — connects to: The Ukrainian Orange Revolution failed to change the oligarchical economic structure — Vincent Bevins, If We Burn: The Mass Protest Decade and…, 476; Non-intervention fails if rival powers still intervene in the region — Bernard Lewis, From Babel to Dragomans: Interpreting…, 1199; Shared Orthodox Slavic civilization made violence between Russia and Ukraine unlikely — Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the…, 451
• QUESTION: Worth chasing whether Sharp-trained NGO strategy systematically presupposes functioning unions and boycotts — a critique applicable across the whole decade.

Broader Connections

• Shared Orthodox Slavic civilization made violence between Russia and Ukraine unlikely #complicates (0.75) — Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the…, 451
• Non-intervention fails if rival powers still intervene in the region #corroborates (0.72) — Bernard Lewis, From Babel to Dragomans, 1199