Shared Orthodox Slavic civilization made violence between Russia and Ukraine unlikely

Evidence

Many people thought armed conflict was likely, which led some Western analysts to argue that the West should support Ukraine’s having a nuclear arsenal to deter Russian aggression. If civilization is what counts, however, violence between Ukrainians and Russians is unlikely. These are two Slavic, primarily Orthodox peoples who have had close relationships for centuries and between whom intermarriage is common. Despite highly contentious issues and the pressure of extreme nationalists on both sides, the leaders of both countries worked hard and largely successfully to moderate these disputes. The election of an explicitly Russian-oriented president in Ukraine in mid-1994 further reduced the probability of exacerbated conflict between the two countries. While serious fighting occurred between Muslims and Christians elsewhere in the former Soviet Union and much tension and some fighting between Russians and Baltic peoples, as of 1995 virtually no violence had occurred between Russians and Ukrainians. — Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the…, 451

Categorization

• XREF: Connects to the author’s core thesis that cultural/civilizational ties suppress conflict — echoes his earlier claims about the ‘kin country’ principle and balances against predictions of Russo-Ukrainian war that did erupt in 2014/2022. — connects to: Nonviolent-tactics doctrine failed in Ukraine because its prerequisites were absent — Vincent Bevins, If We Burn: The Mass Protest Decade and…, 501
• QUESTION: This was published in 1996; the 2014 and 2022 invasions flatly contradict it. Worth chasing how he underweighted factors beyond shared civilization.