In divided societies, voter turnout may matter more than ideological conviction.

Evidence

Even in the context of a divided society, mere strength of ideological conviction does not always translate into votes. As such, voter turnout becomes a critical variable in explaining eventual electoral success (Mitchell, 1995). Such electoral mobilization may demand an approach that is both politically astute and ethnically rooted. — Cathy Gormley-Heenan and Roger Macginty, Ethnic Outbidding and Party…, 79

Categorization

• SEED: A useful lever for explaining the Kenyan/Zambia comparison: in pluralist democracies outbidding works through voter mobilization, whereas in authoritarian regimes it may run through party penetration of the state — turnout is the regime-type-dependent variable.
• XREF: connects to: A narrow dedicated group can outweigh an apathetic electorate; Electoral violence in ethnically divided societies erupts when elections become ethnic head counts. — Johan Brosché and Hanne Fjelde and Kristine Höglund, Electoral violence and the legacy of…, 14

Related

• Electoral violence in ethnically divided societies erupts when elections become ethnic head counts. (similarity 0.81)

Broader Connections

• A narrow dedicated group can outweigh an apathetic electorate #expands (0.80)
• Electoral violence in ethnically divided societies erupts when elections become ethnic head counts. #complicates (0.75) — Johan Brosché and Hanne Fjelde and Kristine Höglund, Electoral violence and the legacy of…, 14