Deterrence theory rests on flawed assumptions and misrepresented history.

Evidence

Many have made similarly questionable arguments in stating that the outcome of the Cold War proves the effectiveness of deterrence. Demolishing such conclusions, the international relations scholar Steve Chan writes: … Was the U.S. deterrence against the USSR effective? That Moscow did not attack Western Europe might have been because of the effectiveness of this U.S. deterrence. It could also be that Moscow never had any intention of launching such an attack, or that it might have been dissuaded from carrying out such an attack by its economic weakness, dissension among its leaders, concern for a challenge from China, or some other reason. Thus, one needs to guard against spurious inferences, giving credit to deterrence for keeping peace and stability when this policy does not quite deserve such credit. — David Vine, Base Nation_ How U.S. Military Bases…, 1042 (#corroborates, via linked claim)

History is always stranger than we imagine or can imagine. It’s never black/white, it’s never either/or, it’s never “if a, therefore b.” The chains of causation snap when you breathe on them. Some iron assumptions are cobweb-thin. History is never tidy or shapely. It doesn’t have a dramatic arc. — Hilary Mantel, A Memoir of My Former Self- A Life in…, 1173 (#corroborates, via linked claim)

Categorization

• XREF: connects to: Cheapening nuclear weapons is eroding the precondition for deterrence; Deterrence research finds no consensus on variables that predict effectiveness.; The Cold War outcome does not prove deterrence worked — David Vine, Base Nation_ How U.S. Military Bases…, 1042 (+2 more)

Related

• Deterrence research finds no consensus on variables that predict effectiveness. (similarity 0.91)
• The Cold War outcome does not prove deterrence worked (similarity 0.89)
• Cold War peace cannot be reliably attributed to U.S. deterrence. (similarity 0.86)
• Deterrence theory lacks evidence for effective prediction (similarity 0.84)
• The security benefits of overseas bases rest on unproven deterrence theory (similarity 0.81)
• Deterrence research ignores the long-term deterrence that overseas bases supposedly provide (similarity 0.78)

Broader Connections

• The Cold War outcome does not prove deterrence worked #corroborates (0.80) — David Vine, Base Nation_ How U.S. Military Bases…, 1042
• Real history lacks tidy dramatic arcs and tidy causation. #corroborates (0.60) — Hilary Mantel, A Memoir of My Former Self- A Life in…, 1173