Deterrence research ignores the long-term deterrence that overseas bases supposedly provide

Evidence

Some analysts ardently support the validity and continued relevance of deterrence theory. But almost all of their research analyzes deterrence in the face of immediate threats (like troops massed at a border, ready to invade). There has been little investigation of the effectiveness of long-term deterrence, of the kind supposedly provided by U.S. bases overseas. — David Vine, Base Nation_ How U.S. Military Bases…, 1039