Demonstrated risk can succeed precisely because it is risky

Evidence

In the author’s opinion the dispatch of United States troops to Lebanon in 1958 was not only both risky and successful but successful precisely because of the risk—a risk that the Communists could lessen or aggravate according to their response. — Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, 809

Categorization

• QUESTION: A concrete historical case showing that a risky commitment’s value lay in the risk itself — worth chasing the Lebanon 1958 confirmation on.
• XREF: connects to: Compellence works by creating shared uncontrollable risk of catastrophe — Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, 444; Known capability for failure can stabilize mutual-threat situations — Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, 822; Where risk is greatest, fatalism paradoxically returns — Anthony Giddens, The Consequences of Modernity, 264 (+4 more)

Broader Connections

• A credible threat can subordinate the final decision to chance outside the threatener’s control #expands (0.80) — Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, 416
• Threatening a small risk beats threatening certainty when the enemy’s controllability is uncertain. #exemplifies (0.80) — Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, 427
• Compellence works by creating shared uncontrollable risk of catastrophe #expands (0.75) — Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, 444
• Known capability for failure can stabilize mutual-threat situations #complicates (0.72) — Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, 822
• Where risk is greatest, fatalism paradoxically returns #qualifies (0.72) — Anthony Giddens, The Consequences of Modernity, 264