Counterterrorism deterrence can backfire because governments and terrorists interpret threats oppositely

Evidence

How terrorists perceive the threat of government coercion may determine whether or not policies of deterrence will work. How terrorists interpret success and failure may be critical to policy effectiveness, since what the government regards as a threat of punishment may be considered by the terrorist as a reward. Policies intended to inhibit terrorism may instead lead to its escalation. — John T. Jost and Jim Sidanius, Political Psychology, 4183

Categorization

• XREF: The reward/coercion ambiguity echoes rational deterrence theory debates and critiques of coercive diplomacy.
• SEED: Article angle: when do repressive countermeasures function as recruitment incentives rather than deterrents—applied beyond terrorism to policing and protest suppression.