British miscalculation ignored population drift that pushed protected Somali into Ethiopia’s sphere

Evidence

The eventual effect, of course, clearly envisaged by Rodd and his government of this unilateral withdrawal or curtailment of protection by Britain, was to place the Somali clansmen concerned in a position in which they would not be able to maintain their independence from Ethiopia. It was merely a matter of time before Ethiopia followed up her spasmodic thrusts and transformed her infiltration among the Somali into a definite occupation. This contingency was clearly provided for in the third annex to the treaty which stipulated that the clans on each side of the new British Protectorate frontier should have access to the grazing areas and ‘nearer wells’ both within and outside the British sphere; during such migratory movements they were to be under the jurisdiction of the appropriate territorial authority. However, Rodd and the other British officials concerned thought that the Ethiopians would be slow to take advantage of what they had in effect already gained; it was considered that in practice things would continue much as they were with the Haud remaining as a sort of buffer zone used by the British clans only temporarily for grazing. The effects of the gradual adoption of agriculture by the western Somali clans were not envisaged, for this process had hardly yet started. A more serious objection which might more reasonably have been anticipated was the effect of the centuries’ old trend of population movement away from the highly eroded north towards the centre and Haud. This gradual drift of population was to bring increasing numbers of British protected Somali into what was now effectively the Ethiopian sphere. — I.M. Lewis, I. M. Lewis, A Modern History of the Somali_ Nation…, 189 (#qualifies, via linked claim)

Categorization

• XREF: connects to: Britain’s 1897 withdrawal knowingly doomed the Somali clans’ independence.; Long-run southward Somali migration funnelled protected clans into Ethiopia’s sphere.; Britain in 1897 nearly abandoned its Somaliland protectorate (+3 more)

Related

• Britain’s 1897 withdrawal of protection exposed Somali clansmen to Ethiopian occupation (similarity 0.90)
• Britain’s 1897 withdrawal knowingly doomed the Somali clans’ independence. (similarity 0.90)
• Britain in 1897 nearly abandoned its Somaliland protectorate (similarity 0.90)
• Long-run southward Somali migration funnelled protected clans into Ethiopia’s sphere. (similarity 0.88)
• Menelik’s 1891 circular asserted Ethiopian sovereignty over Somali clans (similarity 0.87)
• Britain ceded 67,000 square miles of the Haud to Ethiopia in 1897 (similarity 0.86)
• British-protected Somali only learned of the 1897 treaty when the 1934 boundary commission arrived (similarity 0.84)
• Britain’s treaty let Ethiopian claims lapse without recognizing its sovereignty. (similarity 0.82)
• British withdrawal unleashed clan feuds and mass starvation in the interior (similarity 0.82)
• Frontier demarcation with Ethiopia first revealed Britain’s withdrawal of protection (similarity 0.81)
• Britain surrendered Haud grazing lands to Ethiopia without consulting Somali subjects (similarity 0.80)
• Britain nearly abandoned its Somaliland Protectorate over cost concerns. (similarity 0.80)
• Britain’s Somaliland involvement was purely a meat-provisioning auxiliary to Aden’s garrison (similarity 0.80)
• Britain’s nominal treaty stipulation masked its earlier unilateral record in Somaliland. (similarity 0.80)
• Britain obtained Ethiopian recognition of the Protectorate while ceding no Somali territory to Ethiopia (similarity 0.80)

Broader Connections

• Britain’s 1897 withdrawal of protection exposed Somali clansmen to Ethiopian occupation #qualifies (0.60) — I.M. Lewis, I. M. Lewis, A Modern History of the Somali_ Nation…, 189
• Pan-Somali nationalism forced British Somaliland into sudden premature independence #qualifies (0.40)