Both rivals seek a detection advantage while hoping none is found

Evidence

We have to try to detect submarines, because we cannot afford to let the Russians find a technique that we do not know, and because we have to learn all we can about detection to make our submarines less detectable; but like a person who has entered into an agreement with a partner that he cannot trust, we may search like the devil for a loophole, knowing that our partner is searching just as hard, while hoping that no loophole is to found. — Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, 543

Categorization

  • XREF: The partnership-loophole parallel is a vivid articulation of mutual trust in private-judge and enforcement arrangements — closest analog to the Godfather’s hostages. — connects to: Adversaries may gain by buying each other’s defensive capacity — Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, 818; A threat binds only if the other believes it cannot be retracted — Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, 297; Judging mutual invulnerability requires comparing two distinct deterrent threats — Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, 587
  • DEEPTHINKING: The double-bind of seeking an advantage one simultaneously hopes is unattainable is a genuinely dense paradox well beyond a routine point.

Broader Connections