A model’s false assumptions can still yield correct predictions through a different mechanism.

Evidence

More than 40 years later, Sharpe can still recall the Darwinian analogy that Alchian used to convey the irrelevance of the verisimilitude of assumptions: `Assume that creatures crawled up from the primordial slime, looked around and decided that for maximum effect they should grow opposable thumbs.” The assumption that anatomical change resulted from conscious judgment of usefulness was plainly absurd, but “the prediction of the model [the development of opposable thumbs] would be correct, even though the actual mechanism (evolution) was very different.” — Donald MacKenzie, An Engine, Not a Camera, 244

Categorization

• XREF: connects to: Friedman judged hypotheses solely by predictive capacity, not by realism of assumptions — Angus Burgin, The Great Persuasion: Reinventing Free…, 405; Financial models survive despite known false predictions when they remain useful. — Donald MacKenzie, An Engine, Not a Camera: How Financial…, 60; Acting on mistaken assumptions about reputation can still yield trust — Russell Hardin, Trust and Trustworthiness, 636 (+3 more)

Broader Connections

• Acting on mistaken assumptions about reputation can still yield trust #exemplifies (0.82) — Russell Hardin, Trust and Trustworthiness, 636
• Ideas survive by generating useful inferences, not by being true #expands (0.80) — Norenzayan, Ara, Big gods - how religion transformed…, 360
• Financial models survive despite known false predictions when they remain useful. #exemplifies (0.78) — Donald MacKenzie, An Engine, Not a Camera, 60
• Market conditions moved toward the model’s assumptions partly because of the model itself #complicates (0.75) — Donald MacKenzie, An Engine, Not a Camera, 1155
• A model’s own applications can undermine its descriptive accuracy #complicates (0.72) — Donald MacKenzie, An Engine, Not a Camera, 151