Friedman judged hypotheses solely by predictive capacity, not by realism of assumptions
Evidence
Drawing on Popper, he argued that the only relevant test of the validity of a hypothesis was a comparison of its predictions and experience, adding that “evidence can never ‘prove’ a hypothesis; it can only fail to disprove it.” Hypotheses that had “survived many opportunities for contradiction” were accorded “great confi dence”; those that were contradicted more often than alternative hypotheses were discarded. Crucially, the validity of a hypothesis was to be determined solely by its predictive capacity, and not by the conformity of its assumptions with our understanding of reality. — Angus Burgin, The Great Persuasion, 405
Categorization
- DEFINE: Defines the controversial ‘predictions-only’ doctrine that legitimized unrealistic assumptions.
- SEED: Article angle: how treating predictions-only as scientific legitimated monetarist policy claims that ignored structural realities.
- XREF: connects to: Friedman held that important theories must rest on descriptively false assumptions — Donald MacKenzie, An Engine, Not a Camera: How Financial…, 54; Modelers trained in the Friedman tradition ignored unrealistic assumptions and tested only implications. — Donald MacKenzie, An Engine, Not a Camera: How Financial…, 245; Unrealistic assumptions do not count as legitimate criticisms in financial economics — Donald MacKenzie, An Engine, Not a Camera: How Financial…, 63 (+4 more)
Broader Connections
- Friedman held that important theories must rest on descriptively false assumptions
#expands(0.90) — Donald MacKenzie, An Engine, Not a Camera, 54 - Modelers trained in the Friedman tradition ignored unrealistic assumptions and tested only implications.
#exemplifies(0.85) — Donald MacKenzie, An Engine, Not a Camera, 245 - Unrealistic assumptions do not count as legitimate criticisms in financial economics
#expands(0.82) — Donald MacKenzie, An Engine, Not a Camera, 63 - A model’s false assumptions can still yield correct predictions through a different mechanism.
#expands(0.80) — Donald MacKenzie, An Engine, Not a Camera, 244 - Frameworks for economic change should be judged by theoretical usefulness, not absolute truth.
#corroborates(0.72) — Greta R. Krippner, The Financialization of the American…, 129