A critical warning can be inverted into a conservative political program

Evidence

Finally, while there may be arrangements that have a high probability of providing warning of the enemy’s preparation for an attack, the value of the system depends on what we can do if we do get warning. We can send off our own anticipatory strike, hoping to get in first; but this is an unattractive course if the warning is ambiguous. A false alarm then leads to war. And a true one precludes any last-minute deterrence. — Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, 559 (#expands, via linked claim)

This type of warning is equivalent to inhabitants of a flood area being told to evacuate when sirens sound; but while their evacuation would reduce the effects of the disaster, the Brighton inhabitants, sensitized to report signs of a ‘little Clacton’ would, in fact, create deviance in something like the original sense suggested in the transactional approach. This is the paradox intrinsic in moral panics. — Cohen, Stanley, Folk devils and moral panics, 617 (#qualifies, via linked claim)

Categorization

• XREF: connects to: Public warnings can provoke the panic they seek to avoid. — Cohen, Stanley, Folk devils and moral panics: the…, 617; Warning is only as valuable as the pre-planned response it triggers — Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, 559

Related

• Warning is only as valuable as the pre-planned response it triggers (similarity 0.86)

Broader Connections

• Warning is only as valuable as the pre-planned response it triggers #expands (0.80) — Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, 559
• Public warnings can provoke the panic they seek to avoid. #qualifies (0.75) — Cohen, Stanley, Folk devils and moral panics, 617