Statistical significance alone does not guarantee a real effect exists.
Evidence
We have to remember that every now and then when p is < .05, nothing is actually there. But if a “gossamer finding” materializes the first time you study something, it may take you years to discover you are chasing “the stuff that dreams are made of.” — Bob Altemeyer, The Authoritarian Specter, 4096
Categorization
Category: Causal Relationships
- XREF: Connects to replication crisis debates on p-hacking and Type II errors.
- QUESTION: What career-long false leads has Altemeyer chased from first-study artifacts?