Social prediction follows will-driven programs, not natural-science laws.

Evidence

Hence to believe that one particular conception of the world, and of life generally, in itself possesses a superior predictive capacity is a crudely fatuous and superficial error. Certainly a conception of the world is implicit in every prediction, and therefore whether the latter is a random series of arbitrary notions or a rigorous and coherent vision is not without its importance; but it precisely acquires that importance in the living brain of the individual who makes the prediction, and who by the strength of his will makes it come true. This can be clearly seen in the case of predictions made by people who claim to be “impartial”: they are full of idle speculation, trivial detail, and elegant conjectures. When a particular programme has to be realised, it is only the existence of somebody to “predict” it which will ensure that it deals with what is essential— with those elements which, being “organisable” and susceptible of being directed or deflected, are in reality alone predictable. This is in contrast with the habitual way of looking at the problem. For it is generally thought that every act of prediction presupposes the determination of laws of regularity similar to those of the natural sciences. But since these laws do not exist in the absolute or mechanical sense that is imagined, no account is taken of the will of others, nor is its application “predicted”. Consequently everything is built on an arbitrary hypothesis and not on reality. — Antonio Gramsci, Selections from the Prison Notebooks, 724

Categorization

• XREF: This anti-positivist position on prediction is central for the Islamophobia toolkit: the claim that ‘predictive’ models of Muslims (e.g., radicalization screening) rest on natural-science assumptions Gramsci dismantles.
• QUESTION: How does Gramsci’s point that impartiality produces ‘idle speculation and elegant conjectures’ square with scholarly norms of objectivity across the humanities and social sciences?