Rational cost-benefit models fail to predict decisions about war and revolution

Evidence

Philosophers of moral virtue suggest that moral values may be deontological (Kant 2005 ) or utilitarian (Mill 1871). Deontic processing is defined by an emphasis on rights and wrongs (Weber 1958 ), whereas utilitarian processing is characterized by costs and benefits (von Neumann and Morgenstern 1944). Models of rational behavior predict many of society’s patterns, such as favored strategies for maximizing profit or likelihood for criminal behavior in terms of opportunity costs (Becker 1962) and important aspects of conflict management (Allison and Zelikow 1999). But the prospects of crippling economic burdens and huge numbers of deaths do not necessarily sway people from positions on whether going to war or opting for revolution is the right or wrong choice. — Scott Atran, The Devoted Actor, 29

Categorization

• XREF: Reinforces the reader’s core question about whether rational/moral correction can shift threat-hardened commitment; cost-benefit appeal is the correction mechanism shown to fail here. — connects to: Rational choice models miss that trust is decided without probabilistic knowledge at decision time — Niklas Luhmann, Trust and Power, 147; Defending sacred values defies material cost-benefit prediction across decision contexts. — Scott Atran, The Devoted Actor: Unconditional…, 22; No reliable predictive model exists for whether major reforms will entrench — Daryl Levinson and Benjamin I. Sachs, Political Entrenchment and Public Law, 429

Related

• Sacred-values-driven violence is insensitive to cost-benefit scope. (similarity 0.81)
• Defending sacred values defies material cost-benefit prediction across decision contexts. (similarity 0.81)
• Rational choice models miss that trust is decided without probabilistic knowledge at decision time (similarity 0.79)
• Devoted actor behavior resists instrumental cost-benefit reasoning. (similarity 0.79)
• Self-interested rational-actor models cannot explain devotion-driven human behavior. (similarity 0.79)

Broader Connections

• Defending sacred values defies material cost-benefit prediction across decision contexts. #exemplifies (0.82) — Scott Atran, The Devoted Actor, 22
• Rational choice models miss that trust is decided without probabilistic knowledge at decision time #expands (0.78) — Niklas Luhmann, Trust and Power, 147